{"id":262411,"date":"2023-03-22T05:22:02","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T05:22:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hamslivenews.com\/?p=262411"},"modified":"2023-03-22T05:27:44","modified_gmt":"2023-03-22T05:27:44","slug":"russia-china-alliance-deepens-the-chasm-with-the-west","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hamslive.com\/news\/2023\/03\/russia-china-alliance-deepens-the-chasm-with-the-west\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia-China alliance deepens the chasm with the West"},"content":{"rendered":"

The alliance between Russia and China is a real problem for the West, former US National Security Advisor John Bolton said.<\/h2>\n

A three-day state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow this week, which began Monday, was hailed by China and Russia\u2019s presidents as the result of solid and cooperative relations between the two leaders and their respective nations and comes after a determined drive over the last decade to strengthen diplomatic, defence and trade ties.<\/p>\n

John Bolton “When China and Russia both say this is an alliance with no limits, I think they mean it. That’s the real problem for the West no matter what happens in Ukraine,” Bolton told The Telegraph.<\/p>\n

He said Ukraine is a vital interest for the United States, but added that Washington is also very much concerned about the relationship between Russia and China. “Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow makes it even clear the West has got to think in global terms for its own security. It’s really the China-Russia axis which is what I think it’s becoming with outriders like Iran and North Korea. Look at the map, look at the geography. This is something we gotta take seriously,” he said.<\/p>\n

The West will be watching the three-day state visit by China\u2019s President Xi Jinping to Moscow that began Monday very closely.<\/p>\n

China and Russia share a mutual distrust of the West and disdain for what they see as U.S. \u201chegemony\u201d in international affairs.\u00a0 Recent Western trade wars against China, tech export restrictions and the threat of sanctions over Russia also serve to push Beijing and Moscow closer together.<\/p>\n

China and Russia are taking centre stage this week as both countries look to deepen ties just as a chasm with the West, on a geopolitical and economic as well as military front, appears to be getting deeper, according to analysts.<\/p>\n

Ahead of the visit, President Vladimir Putin said in an article that \u201cunlike some countries claiming hegemony and bringing discord to the global harmony, Russia and China are literally and figuratively building bridges\u201d while his Chinese counterpart returned the favour, telling AFP he is \u201cconfident the visit will be fruitful and give new momentum to the healthy and stable development of Chinese-Russian relations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s visit to Moscow is something of a political coup for Russia given that it comes at a time when Russia has few high-powered friends left on the international stage, and little to show for its invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Russian forces have made little tangible progress despite a year of fighting, and a largely isolated Moscow continues to labour under the weight of international sanctions. To add insult to injury, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on Friday, alleging that he is responsible for war crimes committed in Ukraine during the war.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, China and Russia have long shared similar geopolitical aims, such as a desire to see what they call a \u201cmulti-polar world\u201d and the curbing of NATO\u2019s military might, that unite them. And perhaps the most significant shared viewpoint of all is their mutual, long-standing distrust of the West.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you look at the trajectory of China-Russia relations within the last decade, bilateral ties between the two countries have really developed tremendously,\u201d Alicja Bachulska, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told CNBC, saying that the process of developing ties had begun back in the 1990s.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s basically about certain strategic interests, that are very close to both Beijing and Moscow at this point,\u201d she added. \u201cFor both Russia and China, the main interest is to weaken the U.S.-led international order, that\u2019s their primary goal, long term and short term.\u201d<\/p>\n

China has curbed from openly supporting Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine but it has also refused to condemn the invasion. Instead, it has echoed Moscow in criticizing the U.S. and NATO for what it sees as \u201cfueling the fire\u201d over Ukraine. It has also sought to carve out a niche for itself as a peacemaker, calling on both sides to agree on a cease-fire and come to the negotiating table for talks.<\/p>\n

The West is worried that Beijing could provide lethal weaponry to Russia to enable it to gain the upper hand in Ukraine<\/a>, as U.S. intelligence suggested last month. Ukraine\u2019s Western allies have signalled that any move to do so would be a red line and that, should Beijing cross it, there would be \u201cconsequences\u201d in the form of sanctions placed on China.<\/p>\n

Beijing has vehemently denied it is planning on supplying Russia with any military hardware. China\u2019s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday, reiterating previous comments, that the West was supplying weapons to Ukraine, not China, telling reporters that \u201cthe U.S. side should stop fueling the fires and fanning the flames … and play a constructive role for a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, not the other way around.\u201d<\/p>\n

China has denied it is planning to help Moscow militarily but analysts say Beijing is concerned over the war in Ukraine, noting that China views a Russian failure in Ukraine as a threat, given that it carries the risk of a potentially seismic political fallout back in Russia that in turn could harm Beijing.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe worst case scenario for Beijing now is Russia\u2019s<\/a> complete failure in this war,\u201d the ECFR\u2019s Bachulska said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they begin to think that Russia might fail \u2014 and that in the really worst-case nightmare scenario that there [could be then] a pro-democratic government in Moscow \u2014 for China, this would be a very threatening scenario,\u201d she noted, seen as both a \u201cdirect threat to Beijing, and the stability of the CCP [Chinese Communist Party].\u201d<\/p>\n

This fear, she said, could sway China when it considers whether to offer Putin help in Ukraine. \u201cThey will probably be able to provide more support if they realize that the balance of power on the battlefield is against Russia,\u201d Bachulska noted.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s highly possible that, should China help Russia in terms of weaponry or military technology, however, it will look to do it in a very covert way, analysts including Bachulska and those at the Institute for the Study of War have noted, such as using Belarus or other countries.<\/p>\n

While possible military aid for China is something the West needs to watch closely, the depth and breadth of China\u2019s loyalty toward Moscow is seen to be finite, with Beijing likely reluctant to risk major sanctions on its own economy just to help Russia.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, analysts note that China, like Russia, has a vested interest in seeing the U.S. and wider West weakened, both geopolitically and diplomatically \u2014 for instance, if China can step in as a mediator in the conflict in Ukraine \u2014 and on an economic level if the two nations can forge closer trade ties. This would come as the U.S. and Europe challenge China\u2019s economic power, most recently with the introduction of sweeping export control rules aimed at restricting China\u2019s ability to access advanced computing chips.<\/p>\n

\u201cExport controls on Chinese high tech \u2014 which reflect a policy of targeted containment \u2014 bring Xi closer to Putin in worldview and orientation,\u201d Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, told CNBC, adding: \u201cI think that\u2019s likely to be reflected in Xi\u2019s statements when he … visits Putin in Moscow, and that\u2019s going to be a big deal geopolitically,\u201d Bremmer noted.<\/p>\n

While Russia might offer China a convenient trading and diplomatic partnership as other routes to Western markets look increasingly vulnerable, analysts note that the relationship between China and Russia is an imbalanced one.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina doesn\u2019t really need Russia,\u201d Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC. \u201cRussia is a very tiny economy compared to China\u2019s with the exception of some very specific things, such as its hydrocarbon exports and some aspects of its military industries,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat I would say though is that the U.S. pressing on China, especially in these trade wars and now tech wars, is a clear zero-sum project by the U.S. government to prevent China from reaching the frontier of key technologies, notably semiconductors,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems to me that as a result of the U.S. government\u2019s zero-sum campaign to pull back China, to stop it getting ahead and keep it behind, is that suddenly the relationship with Russia becomes more valuable to China.\u201d.<\/p>\n

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